The future of student subject demand for Higher Education in the UK

In the midst of an upcoming election, you may have missed that Ofqual published the number of provisional entries by subject for GCSEs, AS and A levels in England for the summer 2024 exam series.  

The data provides insight into future UK domestic demand trends in Higher Education. Coupled with IDP’s demand data and student search trends on WhatUni and the Complete University Guide websites, we start to get a broad picture of future domestic subject demand for Higher Education in the UK.  

A Level Summer Entries 2021-2024 

Source: Provisional Ofqual A Level Entries 

 The overall entries for A level have increased by 2.4% from 806,410 in 2023 to 825,390 in 2024. This is primarily driven by the continuing increase in the size of the population of those aged 18, which increased from 648,066 in 2023 to 655,635 in 2024 (ONS population estimates). 

 Despite the growing population of 18-year-olds, the sector has seen year-on-year declines in the number of undergraduate applications at the UCAS January deadline over the past 3 years, falling from 610,720 in 2022 to 594,940 in 2024. However, this has been driven by a fall in mature student applications. There have, in fact, still been year-on-year increases in the number of 18-year old applicants at the January deadline. The 2023 and 2024 growth in A-Level entries indicates that we can expect this trend to continue over the next 2 years, but we should also not expect a recovery in applications from mature students as we continue through challenging costs of living in the UK.  

Subject increases in the number of A-Level summer entries from 2023 to 2024 

Source: Provisional Ofqual A Level Entries  

 The above chart shows the top 15 subjects with the largest growth in entries versus 2023. What stands out immediately is the significant increase in entries into Maths, Physics and Further Maths. The rise in both modern languages and English literature, and to a lesser extent English language and literature, should also be noted with both areas having previously seen declines in recent years.  

Computer Science has been one of the fastest-growing subject areas over the past three years and is again in the top five biggest growth areas for A Level entries in 2024. Subjects that have declined in 2024 include Sociology, Drama, History, Geography and Psychology. Psychology though remains the second largest A Level subject area. 

When we compare A Level entries with the search trends across our IDP domestic sites, which typically reflect application intentions 12-18 months out, we see some similar trends.  

The chart below shows the difference in search volume from the first six months of 2024 versus the same time last year. 

Growth in IDP user search volume (Jan – June 2024 vs Jan – June 2023) 

Source: IDP IQ Portfolio 

Finance and Accounting, Business and Economics have seen the biggest growth in search volume compared with the same period last year, all subjects closely associated with pathways from A-Level Mathematics 

Biological Sciences and Law, are also areas we see growth in A-Level entries. These also appear within the top ten subjects for demand growth across our sites between January and June 2024.  

What are the implications? 

The conservative government’s agenda to push and promote STEM appears to have translated into student demand. The significant increase in students taking Maths A-Levels will likely result in stronger application volume into related areas such as Business and finance, economics and computer science from 2025/26, and this is reflected in IDP demand data.  

However, universities present students with a significantly wider choice of courses to study than is available at A-Level and more students studying Maths A-Levels doesn’t necessarily mean more students wanting to study Maths at university, something we also see within our IDP demand data. Our data shows increasing demand for areas within Nursing, Physical and Psychological therapies, Pharmacology, Architecture and Art are all also in growth. 

IDP Connect IQ is uniquely positioned to support universities in understanding not only where there is growing demand at subject level but within which specific courses and the naming convention that is most popular.  

Contact us for more information about how IDP Connect can support your institution with understanding domestic and international student demand.